Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes offers a bearish view on cryptocurrencies in the short term.
BitMEX Co-Founder and Former CEO Arthur Hayes Says Status stock market weakness global can lead to Cryptocurrency Crash in the second quarter and he uses put option as a protective measure.
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In blog post his latest today, Arthur Hayes claims cryptocurrency is parallel move U.S. tech stocks and Russia’s attack on Ukraine will hurt both industries.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 11, 2022
He thinks that if the Nasdaq 100 falls, it will drag the cryptocurrency down. Hayes gives a series of diagrams showing correlation between traditional and crypto markets to support this view.
The point is, why would he argue that the Nasdaq 100 will go down? Part of the reason is due to the impact from Russian attack.
Hayes wrote, “The Russia-Ukraine conflict will make” global growth declines due to high commodity prices.” This will hurt the stock price, he added.
The second argument is that the world is currently witnessing higher interest rates in response to inflation.
The third factor is based on look at the chart of the Nasdaq 100. Hayes said that technical analysis suggests that the Nasdaq 100 could fall.
To sum up, he is thinking the price will fall in the short term. Hayes estimates that Bitcoin could go as low as 30,000 dollars before the end of June and Ether will drop to 2,500 dollars.
Looking further at Bitcoin, Hayes said that he is accumulating several other cryptocurrencies as they are at much lower prices. But he remains concerned that they will drop lower this year.
“Although some coins are down 75% from their all-time highs, I do not believe they can escape the coming crypto carnage.” he said.
Therefore, he hedges his assets by buying put options, which will perform well if the market crashes this quarter.
Hayes accepts that this analysis is likely to be wrong.
“I would be wrong if the correlation between Bitcoin/Ether and [Nasdaq 100] start to decrease before the risky asset market crashes,” I said. But he admits that he is fine with that because he is a long-term crypto investor.