Since making a strong attempt to reclaim the $ 9K mark at the beginning of the month, Bitcoin has pulled back but is currently trading in a tight range between $ 8,662 and $ 8,946. BTC is trying to get back and maintain above $ 9K.
The graph of total market capitalization shows that the buying volume has stopped and has not recovered after last week's attack. As the figure below shows, total market capitalization has found support at $ 236.9 billion, where there is a high volume node and currently the market capitalization is sustaining above the 200-day MA.
Daily total market capitalization chart | Source: TradingView
At the moment, it seems that investors are on the lookout, assessing whether the spread of the Corona virus continues to negatively impact the global market, so Bitcoin price action moves sideways. here.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is also seeking support at the high volume node VPVR that ranges from $ 8,670 to $ 8,853 and the trader tries to hold the price above the MA 200.
$ 8,400 (coinciding with MA 128) and the 50% Fib Fib have been acting as a strong support level, so if the bull loses control of the MA 200 then the trader will view the $ 8,400 as an area to recover. anise.
Daily BTC / USDT chart | Source: TradingView
While $ 8,670 is acting as a support, $ 8,844 is the area that Bitcoin is trying to cross. If the price can rise above this level, it easily translates to $ 9,150. As such, the price will surpass the MA 20 of the bollinger band indicator, but bear in mind that if a strong rebound at $ 9,150 will complete the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern on the daily time frame, after It is expected BTC will retest MA 200 ($ 8,720) or MA 128 ($ 8,444).
BTC / USDT 4-hour chart | Source: TradingView
On the 4-hour time frame, the soaring volume has helped price breakout out of the trend line of the bulls and hopes to continue going past the high volume VPVR node at $ 9,140 and a higher peak above $ 9,382.
Even a turn of $ 8,966 as a support level is an encouraging sign as it will expand the current trend of the higher daily bottom. The convergence of MACD and the signal line on February 28 has shown the possibility of a bullish reversal since Bitcoin tends to be lower, while the MACD and RSI tend to be higher.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is attempting to erase the resistance of $ 8,977. If volume allows, the trader will set a target at $ 9,140, a higher high above $ 9,306 and a flip of $ 9,300 into support will strengthen the chances of the Bitcoin price rising to the critical level of $ 9,500.
Will Bitcoin price stay above $ 10,000 after halving?
The father of the Bitcoin Plan B stock-to-flow model is sure the price will be around $ 10,000. After that, it will slowly climb to the $ 100,000 target expected by December 2021.
Yes but the multiple / model error only drops because model value jumps to $ 100k at block 630,000 and btc price will not follow within 10 minutes. Btc price will likely stay at around $ 10k and then slowly rise to the $ 100k model value. So no worries about that.
– PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) March 4, 2020
“The model error only dropped because the model value jumped to $ 100K at block 630,000 and the BTC price couldn't follow within 10 minutes. The price of BTC will probably be around $ 10K and then gradually increase to the 100K model value. So no worries about that. ”
The S2F model tries to predict the price of Bitcoin based on supply cuts. Despite being doubted by people who believe that the price of Bitcoin is affected by doubtful demand, this view has been much quant verify and accept.
According to Plan B, halving in May will produce the same result as the previous two because of the combination of S2F and the price of the cryptocurrency king.
He warned investors that there is no 'guarantee' Bitcoin will behave in the same way after 12 years, but the 10-fold profitability is worth the bet.
Yes no guarantee that S2F model will hold after 12 yrs. But the question that everybody should answer for himself is: do you really think chances of S2F failing are> 90%? Because even with 10% chance of succeeding it might be a great bet (10% x $ 100k). The odds are in our favor.
– PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) March 4, 2020
“There is no guarantee that the S2F model will be maintained after 12 years. But the question that everyone should answer for themselves is: do you really think that S2F's probability of failure is> 90%? Because even with a 10% chance of success, it can be a great bet (10% x $ 100K). Odds are good for us. ”
The options contract trader does not agree
However, options traders are still skeptical about the possibility of a sharp increase in Bitcoin after the upcoming halving. According to cryptocurrency research firm Skew, the chances of coins reaching a new high by the end of this year are small, at just 4%.
Probability of new highs post halving = 4%
Traders still want to believe! pic.twitter.com/W9lmkV2wnd
– skew (@skewdotcom) November 27, 2019
Moreover, traders have priced just 11% of the chance that BTC can rise above the 2019 high of about $ 14,000 after halving.
You can see the price of Bitcoin here.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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