Halving Bitcoin is one of the unique programmed mechanisms. It cannot be delayed due to market situations, nor cannot it occur online. Satoshi Nakamoto developed this basic event intentionally and in the last two halving, the community had to find a way to solve the problem due to supply cuts.
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for May 20, 2020, and under current market conditions, concerns are being expressed.
Bitcoin price and mining profit
Report Gate.io recently studied how much Bitcoin needs to achieve to help miners maintain profits.
The term used in the report is 'closing price', i.e. if the BTC value falls below the closing price of an mining rig, the miners are more likely to lose.
The report explains:
“Closing price machine = daily mining cost / number of Bitcoin mined per day, service pool fees, transaction fees and other processing fees are not considered in this calculation. ”
The analysis was performed on the different mining rigs available in the market as illustrated in the image below.
When looking at both images, it can be concluded that Bitcoin's lowest price after halving is about $ 7,234 for AntminerS19 Pro is currently not available on the market.
It can be assumed that after halving, the miner can change mining rigs to accumulate more profits but the basic Bitcoin valuation for profit is still $ 7,200.
At the moment, Bitcoin is priced at $ 6,050 after falling terribly to $ 3,800 on March 12. The recovery is significant but such price fluctuations are not ideal in the current market crisis.
Report COT of CME Bitcoin Futures: Bitcoin increased by 28-41% in April
The worst Bitcoin sell-off seems to have passed in the context of a weekly candle rise of 18.83%. With the hours remaining for this weekly close, the future of Bitcoin (at least in the short and medium term) seems very optimistic with bull support.
The CME Bitcoin Futures have gaps in price at the time of writing, ranging from $ 8,200 to $ 9,100. This means a 28% increase to reach the gap and a 41% increase to close the gap. This will be a good opportunity to place long orders.
COT CME report
The COT CME report presents the convergence of leveraged funds and other reports after a historical divergence. The funds used often include hedge funds and various money managers such as registered commodity trading advisors (CTAs), registered commodity group operators (CPOs) or funds. have not been registered by CFTC. However, the report also includes clearing members, traders receiving future contract commissions and foreign brokers.
Net OI of Bitcoin Futures COT – CME | Source: Skew
The difference between leveraged reports and other reports reached their highest point on February 25. Total leverage positions of -2806 and 1703 reported positions were observed during peak divergence.
Since then, the spread has decreased. The convergence between these two types of investments was observed on December 10, when both the leverage and other reporting positions met at one point and indicated a price bottom at that time. After this point, prices started rising and reached their highest level on February 13, 2020.
At the time of writing, the total leverage position has dropped to -1038 and other reports have risen to 80. In a way, this convergence shows that a bottom has formed and this is the time for price increases.
Total OI and volume of Bitcoin Futures CME | Source: Skew
With a low OI at its last appearance in January 2019, the CME gap and convergence created the perfect storm for the next bull run. The uptrend will form at the end of the first quarter, a period of history steeped in red. Therefore, Bitcoin price will improve significantly in early April.
You can see the price of BTC here.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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