Bitcoin's bull market is here, but won't reach $ 100,000 by 2020

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is holding around $ 9,445 after some impressive growth in the past few weeks. But whether this has been the penultimate Bitcoin bull market – as predicted since the bear market broke traders' emotions in 2018 and 2019, or is this just another fake rally that will disappointing and frustrating holders?

Check out the charts below to learn more!

Overview of the cryptocurrency market. Source: Coin360
Overview of the cryptocurrency market. Source: Coin360

Flip monthly

In the January 12 analysis, I wrote that my biggest concern was the bearish nature on the monthly chart. At the time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator was on the first red candle of the MACD histogram, however, all other major time frames such as weekly and daily were trending. bullish (bullish).

Monthly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
Monthly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView

Despite these concerns, I came up with a case that a new bull market could be opened, if the price holds above $ 8,500 for 2 to 3 weeks, as this has already changed the momentum of the market. chart.

Now that 3 weeks have passed, investors seem more excited than disappointed. The new month began yesterday, along with a “submerged candle” that completely changed Bitcoin charts from slightly bullish with some bearish possibilities to extremely bullish. This appearance also makes the psychology of traders on social networks significantly change.

So, is this the price increase race we've been waiting for, or is it just something more exciting behind the recent moves?

Bitcoin mining difficulty increased

Bitcoin mining difficulty chart. Source: www.btc.com
Bitcoin mining difficulty chart. Source: www.btc.com

On Jan. 14, the Bitcoin price increased from $ 8,140 to $ 8,879 – representing an increase of 8.5% for the day. On the same day, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased 7.08% and it seems that this is the operating model until 2020.

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On January 1, the Bitcoin price traded near $ 7,200 and the mining difficulty was 6.57%. While there was no immediate change, the price of Bitcoin 5 days later increased by 7% before stabilizing for 9 days, that's when we saw the move increase 8.5% on January 14.

As of January 28, the mining difficulty was only modest at 4.67%, BTC recorded a jump from USD 8,900 to USD 9,350, which again shows that the increase in price is similar to that of difficult to exploit.

Currently, in less than a week, the mining difficulty will continue to increase by 4.46%, so does that mean Bitcoin will increase 5% more to bring the price closer to the barrier of $ 10,000? next week? If so, this data could give us a taste of what's to come called Halving.

The weekly MACD enters the bullish phase

Monthly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
Monthly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is always an accurate buy / sell indicator for Bitcoin. The final bullish phase begins on February 11, 2019 when the price is only at $ 3,695. This lasted for 28 weeks and saw Bitcoin rise to an annual high of $ 13,800 at the 20-week mark, before the bearish crossover again on August 19 – at which point the price was still around $ 11,000.

The community can't help but feel excited about the future now, because halving is only 14 weeks away from us. This is only half of the last bull run on the MACD, so where can the actual price go?

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Practical expectations

Weekly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
Weekly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView

At that time, there was a lot of false information being spread in the community. As Toiyeubitcoin reported yesterday, some famous cryptocurrency YouTuber predicted Bitcoin price will increase to $ 100,000 by 2020. Also as a cryptocurrency YouTuber, I feel this prediction is unfounded, because Historically, Bitcoin prices did not begin to take off until about 6 months to a year after the halving took place.

In November 2012 – when the first halving occurred, Bitcoin was trading at around $ 10 and the price did not increase until March 2013 – the time the price jumped to $ 30.

However, this is not the first time Bitcoin has reached $ 30. Bitcoin was really in the middle of a 2-year discount market during the preparation period and after the halving day because the price was $ 31 in June 2011.

After Bitcoin once again reached $ 30, the price confirmed the parabolic trend. In April 2013, the Bitcoin price hit a high of $ 269 before falling back to around $ 130 until the end of October 2013 and this is the time when the price suddenly took off to reach $ 1,176 in November 2013.

The last halving date is July 2016, and again, the numbers aren't too optimistic. At halving, prices are around $ 650 – 45% lower than the all-time highs. Bitcoin's price increased by about 10% in December 2016 but failed to surpass previous all-time highs until March 2017 – 10 months after the actual halving date.

So with that in mind, it's unlikely that Bitcoin will reach an all-time high of $ 20,000 by 2020, let alone five times. As such, it makes more sense to expect steady growth for 2020 and possibly a parabolic move by 2021.

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Next week

Weekly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView
Weekly BTC / USD chart. Source: TradingView

Bullish script for Bitcoin

There are now some overhead resistances around $ 9,500 and this is also a key support and resistance level for the past 9 months. With the increasing difficulty in mining in the coming week, I expect Bitcoin to surpass this key point before meeting the final resistance at around $ 10,000.

If Bitcoin breaks above this resistance, I anticipate the price to surpass $ 10,400 before being too excited.

Bearish script for Bitcoin

Everything looks bullish this week, so should traders be worried?

Currently, support can be seen at around $ 9,150 and $ 9,000, but it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin has had a sharp rally in the past few weeks, so a pullback is expected to occur in some time. point.

If the price breaks below $ 8,600, this will be a worrying progress.

Readers can update BTC rates and more than 2,000+ cryptocurrencies in real time here.

Disclaimer: This article is an analysis by cryptocurrency analyst Keith Wareing – a frequent contributor to CoinTelegraph. Readers should only consult, not consider this as an investment advice, especially from Toiyeubitcoin, we will not be responsible for your investment.

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According to CoinTelegraph
Translated by ToiYeuBitcoin

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