Bitcoin is trading at $ 6,723 corresponding to a 0.32% increase in the past 24 hours but an increase of 15% compared to the weekly opening at $ 5,815. Looking at performance compared to its peers, ETH and XRP are both less efficient than Bitcoin last week and have continued to do so.
Current market price of cryptocurrencies | Source: Coinmarketcap
As a result, Bitcoin's dominance has increased by 1.5% and stepped up to reclaim 68% because there was a flight to a safe zone within Bitcoin, although the dominance still dropped by about 4% to the highest level in about 70% year.
Bitcoin technical analysis
3-day chart BTC / USD. Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin is trading up from the base decision point at $ 6,800. This is a previous support that acted as a resistance level and is the peak of a high volume button analyzed by a cross-trend trend line, which has been appearing since mid-2019.
The reclaiming of $ 6,500 was a sign of strength as the speculators took Bitcoin higher than the 200-week moving average of about $ 5,000. Looking at the big picture, a significant break out of the $ 6.8K resistance level will see Bitcoin attack for the first time $ 7,200 – a 50% retreat of 2020 to a high level – but above a significant resistance. form.
Death cut point
There's a so-called “Death Cross,” which takes place today above $ 8,300, where the 50-day moving average is well above the 200-day average, which is a cluster. crowded with previous support levels, namely 100 days and the 20-week moving average. Besides being a 61.8% Fib retracement level at $ 8,000, an annual axis at $ 8,100 and a high volume button, implying that it will be a real challenge for the bulls to overcome. this point.
3-day chart BTC / USD. Source: Tradingview
The 3-day Bitcoin chart helps illustrate the continuous high volume traded by the bulls, although its decline, the volume at the 200-week moving average led to the strongest increase in OBV for the price increase in recently and the actual support is about $ 5k.
4-hour chart of BTC / USD | Source: Tradingview
The 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows a strong trend driving Bitcoin to rise above the $ 6.8K resistance level with the structure thought to be in an increasing wedge pattern, which usually declines when accompanied by a block drop. amount as clear here. The RSI indicator is also showing that the divergence of the price decrease increases the case of the price decrease.
If the bulls fail to regain $ 6,800, then the 200-week moving average is below the $ 5,500 level on a high volume node, having previously run ahead in the last attempt to break $ 6,800. If the bulls find their feet again, cross support will be found at $ 6,250.
Typically in Bitcoin history, we witnessed a rally into Death Cross and became a Golden Cross. If the bulls can break out of $ 6,800, it is highly likely that the selling pressure is about $ 8K as the confluence of the previously lost support could potentially act as resistance.
Bitcoin market sentiment
The fear and greed index, which comes from sentiment in the market from a variety of inputs, shows it's not surprising that the market is still in a state of extreme fear. is there are many market fluctuations on the road.
The last time this fear was low in any period was in December 2018 at the low of the 2018 bear market and interestingly at the 200-week moving average. The last 200-week moving average is a magnet for retesting even though the price has never been completed and given ahead, which is a good indicator at the bottom. Maybe we are setting up a similar scenario here.
Bitcoin fear and greed index Source: Fear and Greed Index
The futures market also provides an insight into Bitcoin price expectations with contracts ending in June currently trading at a discount of about 1% on spot prices. However, there is an expectation of some recovery and higher valuations for the September contract closed.
Price BTC Futures | Source: Skew
Perpetual swaps are also still negative in the market, meaning that in order to gain a consolidated cash position on a permanent swap, market participants are paying interest rates more efficiently.
Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between negative fundraising (negative funding) and the tendency for the market to rise, so this may indicate that those who end up paying Short positions for longer periods of time while prices remain above 200 WMA will naturally be reduced.
15-minute BItmex Funding chart of BTC / USD. Source: Tradingview
Given the uncertainty in the current global economy and the commitment from central banks to provide unlimited liquidity in the form of debt, it also creates a great opportunity for Bitcoin because of the limited supply. its inflation.
While global assets are depreciating in value, Bitcoin's supply of inflation will be cut in half in May and once the dust and wind have settled in the global market, there may be a stream of cash flows. Idle will flow into the Bitcoin market.
This macroeconomic context can prove to be very beneficial for the price of Bitcoin. The main challenge is to maintain a 200-week moving average and mining revenue above production costs, which is currently positive.
Assuming the 200-week moving average will be held and $ 8K will be the expected resistance, Bitcoin may find itself trading sideways between $ 6K and $ 8K for a while before the decisive move. With only 47 days to go by the time Bitcoin halves, this event could be the catalyst to bring Bitcoin back to the 8k resistance level.
You can see the price of Bitcoin here.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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