Still in the same category, this week we will analyze some of the following currency pairs: Gold, EURUSD and GBPNZD.

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GOLD analysis

Observing the weekly candle, it can be seen that after a series of ups and downs, gold had a very strong bearish candle in the first week of November, the next 4 candles are in doji form, showing that the gold is trying to accumulate this more and more suitable when gold is getting closer to the end of the wedge. So it is likely that there will be waves of increase and decrease to restructure the market in the near future, in order to establish a new trend.

In addition, this time is also the end of the year there will be many sell-offs to close the book, so gold may rise and fall very abnormal. When trading, you remember to set a full stop loss so that your account will not “fly”.

Last week, after the Non Farm Non-farm Payrolls report was released, gold dropped 170 pips in just 30 minutes!

The reason for this decline is that the results from the report from the US non-farm payroll have increased risk sentiment, combined with some rumors that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. This information will be announced at the last meeting of 2019 to take place this week.

Perhaps for that reason, over the weekend, Gold closed the candle at 1460 which is also a Pivot Points rotation point.

And as mentioned above, this week there will be a FOMC meeting announcing interest rates from the Fed on Thursday at 2am Vietnam time. So it is likely that gold will move sideways to wait for the Fed's interest rate decision.

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One more point, to accurately analyze the gold trend, you should pay attention to USD Index.

Take a look at DXY's D1 frame chart or USD Index as shown below:

As you can see, DXY has formed a 2-peak pattern, on Friday, so moved to Pull Back on Neckline. And until today there is a downward trend in the right direction of this model.

In theory, DXY is always the opposite of gold if gold goes up DXY goes down and if gold goes down DXY goes up. Here, also theoretically when DXY follows the 2-peak model, the USD will decrease and gold will increase.

However, if compared with the model, gold is in a downtrend as it has gradually created lower peaks and lower lows.

Thus, it can be seen that after the sharp price drop last Friday, gold may increase slightly, this will coincide with the 2-peak model that DXY is creating.

Referring to the Fibonacci retracement, it can be seen that the gold will move up to 1471 which is also touching the EMA 89 as shown below:

Suggest a gold trading plan this week:

  • Sell ​​Limit: 1472-1474
  • Cut loss at: 1478
  • Take profit: 1457

Analysis of the currency pair GBPNZD

GBPNZD has formed a double bottom pattern as the weekly W1 candlestick chart below:

You can see the price broke the neckline neckline of 2,298, and now the price is Pulling back in this area.

Over the past week, prices have changed a lot, breaking down the neckline. However, the weekly candle is still closed above this border, so the pattern has not been broken.

In addition, during the pull back as you can see the candle formed a bearish wedge pattern.

The wedge model declines, so if the price breaks above the wedge, it will be a great point that the price will increase sharply in the near future, because it has completed the declining wedge model and has completed the double bottom model.

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If price breaks the lower edge, it will breakout through the neckline. This will cause the double bottom pattern to fail.

Suggest a GBPNZD trading plan this week:

As mentioned above, it's best for you to now wait to see which price breaks which edge, the upper or lower wedges to enter the order.

If GBPNZD breaks the wedge, you can trade in the following plan:

Buy at 2,014 region

Cut loss at: 2002

Take profit: 2.03

If GBPNZD breaks the lower wedge edge or the price just breaks the neckline at 2.00298 as above, then you can trade under the following plan:

Sell ​​(Sell) at: 1,998

Cut loss: 2004

Profit-taking: 1,990

You note the GBPNZD pair I analyze according to D1 and W1 candles, so you should be very patient to enter the order because the stop-loss point is very far. That's why you also need to manage your capital closely when trading you guys. Good luck.

Analysis of the EURUSD currency pair

This week the EURUSD pair will experience extreme fluctuations as the UK will conduct a general election on December 12.

In addition, last week due to the trade conflict issue between the US and China, EURUSD affected slightly increased by 0.38% despite the non-farm payroll of Non Farm is better than expected.

Based on the technical analysis, looking at the chart above you can see some notable points as follows.

At D1, EURUSD formed a 2-peak pattern. However, the report of non-farm payrolls held on Friday made the price plummet, plunging below the neckline of 1,10870.

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But the daily candle is still closed and above both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA. One more point, the D1 candle cluster on Thursday and Friday has formed a submerged candle pattern. Combined with the failure of the 2-bottom model and the sinking pattern, it can be seen that EURUSD will retest the neckline or the resistance at 1.1087. If it does not stand here, it is likely that prices will plummet.

Suggest EURUSD trading options this week:

  • Sell ​​limit at 1.108 or 1.109
  • Cut loss at: 1.111
  • Take profit at: 1,100

News of the week

Thursday will be the “bloodiest” day with news related to interest rates of the US dollar from the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, if you are not experienced with trading orders on Wednesday, you should close all, or have to cut loss. Because interest rate information will be announced at 2am on the fifth day of Vietnam time.

In addition, Thursday was the news about the election as well as the ECB European Bank meeting. So you must trade very carefully on that day. Good luck!


You have just read the article: “GOLD, EURUSD And GBPNZD Analysis Week From 10/12 to 13/12/2019”

Author: Tin Nguyen

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