Bitcoin halving by 2020 will not have an impact on prices as expected

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $ 3,700 in a short span of time on March 12, ending the day at $ 4,970. By March 13, prices recovered from a major downtrend, then ended the day at $ 5,563 and recorded an impressive profit of over 11%.

Instability in recent markets – whether in the traditional market or the cryptocurrency space, has raised questions about Bitcoin's price development, as well as its important network features. Let's take a look at four key Bitcoin price and network metrics to gain insight into the future of the largest cryptocurrency in the market.

Stock-to-flow pattern is still intact

Looking at the stock-to-flow model – a model that predicts Bitcoin prices based on the available stock and the number of new releases (flow), we can see the actual price of Bitcoin on The year is below the forecast threshold, but still within the expected threshold.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow price model. Source: PlanB / Twitter
Bitcoin stock-to-flow price model. Source: PlanB / Twitter

This is not the first time Bitcoin's price has dropped below the 365-day model's forecast, as has happened for 6 months (from mid-November 2018 to mid-May 2019), turning over forecasts since there.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow price model from July 2018 to December 2021. Source: lookintobitcoin.com
Bitcoin stock-to-flow price model from July 2018 to December 2021. Source: lookintobitcoin.com

In one tweet On March 13, PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, said that “Bitcoin has fluctuated well around the value of the model.” Therefore, according to PlanB, the forecast price has not changed when the halving event is getting closer. The current 365-day average model predicts a price of $ 8,426 at the estimated time for halving – May 9, 2020.

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Bitcoin NVT signal

On Sunday, Bitcoin's price hovered around $ 5,400, while its execution price was based on a NVT signal of $ 5,596, which shows that the asset is in the buying zone after a sharp decline on Thursday. Currently, NVT signal is at 49.9 – a number representing a oversold scenario.

For traders considering short-term buying, the model suggests that there is an opportunity to make a quick profit based on the execution price and the 200-week average. Looking at the 200-day average of $ 8,587, Bitcoin shows that the long-term growth possibility and the upcoming halving event in May will underpin this bullish story.

Bitcoin NVT signal. Source: http://charts.woodbull.com
Bitcoin NVT signal. Source: http://charts.woodbull.com

What about the hash rate?

When it comes to hash rate – the index refers to the computing power needed to confirm transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain, it has been declining since March after peaking in history. However, since March 11, it has tended to increase slightly, even after the price witnessed a sharp drop of up to 50% on March 12.

Hash Rate (TH / s) from February 23, 2020 to March 13, 2020. Source: Bitinfocharts
Hash Rate (TH / s) from February 23, 2020 to March 13, 2020. Source: Bitinfocharts

On March 13, the hashrate reached nearly 110.38 million TH / s, the same level was seen at the end of February. However, recent adjustments seen in February did not prevent the long-term uptrend. because the historical hash rate values ​​have been set since the beginning of the year.

Increasing mining difficulty often drives prices higher

Mining difficulty – an index that refers to the level of miners' efforts to validate Bitcoin's blockchain, has continued the growing trend because it's a benchmark. On March 8, the difficulty was increased, which showed that despite the context of price decreases, miners continued to exploit.

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Difficulty of exploitation from January 2020 to March 13, 2020. Source: Bitinfocharts
Difficulty of exploitation from January 2020 to March 13, 2020. Source: Bitinfocharts

Transactions spike on March 12

The sudden increase in the number of Bitcoin transactions on March 12 is typical of a major change in the market. The number of Bitcoin deposited in USD on March 13 also skyrocketed, and the number of daily transactions dropped to the end of February around 277,000 transactions, maintaining a steady pattern since the beginning of the year.

The number of daily transactions is from January 23, 2020 to March 13, 2020. Source: Bitinfocharts
The number of daily transactions is from January 23, 2020 to March 13, 2020. Source: Bitinfocharts

As comments surrounding the confidence of Bitcoin investors raised suspicion, the underlying features of the Bitcoin network showed consistency even though the entire market was in turmoil.

In the future, with such a level of fear in the market, people with strong beliefs may be looking for opportunities to buy at low prices for long-term positive results.

However, the worldwide spread of Covid-19 virus will likely continue to cause short-term liquidity problems in the market and eventually lead to serious economic downturns.

In addition to analyzing the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network, the safe haven of digital assets with gold can sustain investors during the current medium-term crisis even when in the down trend.

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According to CoinTelegraph
Translated by ToiYeuBitcoin

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